Our crypto predictions for 2025!

Well, that was certainly a choice. Amy and I posted over on Pivot to AI about what Mr Trump would mean for AI — surprisingly little, it’s not like Harris was going to regulate tech much either — with a postscript for the crypto followers:

For our crypto readers, the bitcoin price hit a new all-time high today — and not a soul cares. Crypto has the same problem as AI: its fundamentals still suck. The crypto crew may get some regulatory relief from a Trump administration, but the general public still thinks they’re a bunch of crooks and isn’t keen to put its dollars into their magic beans. Trump promised crypto the world too, but we don’t expect him to bother much with following through there either.

I’ve had zero calls or enquiries of any sort. Nobody cares about bitcoin any more.

Trump is a shallow gangster. He listens to whatever the last guy who spoke to him said, and the guys speaking to him are his fellow billionaires. He has a track record of forgetting his promises as soon as he can.

Trump is also clearly going senile, and the distasteful robotic construct known as J. D. Vance is right there to step up. But Vance doesn’t really care either. Mostly Vance is Silicon Valley’s boy and will do what they want.

Crypto may be allowed to work as tax evasion for the very rich. This still won’t bring back the public at this stage. If you’re still a hodler, then, as usual, I advise you to cash out at least your cash basis.

Matt Levine’s column yesterday started with the fundamental issue — the rule of law holds precisely as long as those enacting it can be bothered. Finance is an extremely elaborate construct and quite a lot of the market’s confidence is that you can trust in the structure of regulations and the financial engineering built atop them. All of that is off the board now at the whim of a shallow gangster. “Maybe it’s fine though.” [Bloomberg, archive]

 



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4 Comments on “Our crypto predictions for 2025!”

  1. I think it is very revealing that crypto PAC sponsored ads did not mention cryptocurrency. This makes the industry seem disingenuous when claiming the success of its preferred candidates says anything about public support of cryptocurrency.

    1. Yup. The thing I worry about with Trump and crypto is that he’ll put someone in the SEC that will all crypto “companies” to offload their losses on the public purse.

  2. I big tell on him will be if he really pardons all Jan 6th traitors from 2020. I don’t think that will happen. On the bitcoin front I think his fellow billionaire’s (aside from musk) will tell him not to do it since they like their dollars.

  3. As far as I can tell the big hope now is that the Federal government can be legislated into pumping up bitcoin and other governments will FOMO their way into it.

    Then of course everyone else can dump at some point, and the legislation will have been constructed so the governments can’t sell out at the top, but have to hold onto it.

    It’s a crazy plan, but at least (unlike 99.9% of crypto schemes) might work if it all goes correctly?

    It’s just mad that advocating this isn’t the end of any politician’s career….

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